Date: 01/11/2010

10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceiver markets to grow to $2.6 billion by 2015

Infonetics Research has forecasted the global 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceiver market to grow to $2.6 billion by 2015, more than doubling from 2010, when the market was $1.2 billion

The other finding shared by Infonetics include:
Optical transceiver revenue is up 35% in the first half of 2011 (1H11) compared to the first half of 2010 (1H10)
By 2015, the 40G and 100G segments of the market together will make up 40% of total optical transceiver revenue
Revenue for 40G long reach transceivers jumped 93% from 2H10 to 1H11, and overall 40G port shipments grew 29%, with a surge in 40G coherent shipments by network equipment manufacturers (NEMs)
Ciena, Cisco, and Alcatel-Lucent are ramping up production amidst an aggressive pricing push to grab coherent footprint
Growth in the 100G market will outpace growth in the 40G market starting in 2013 as multiple suppliers transition to production; pricing for 100G products is expected to compare favorably to 40G by 2013 and at these prices, customers show a preference for 100G technology
NEMs developing their own 100G solutions control 70%+ of the optical equipment market share, leaving long reach transponder vendors to fight for the remaining 30% of the market

"Tunable XFP optical transceivers were the standout product in the first half of 2011, with shipments up 59% over the previous 6-month period, putting the category on track to increase 200% in 2011 over 2010. Multiple suppliers are now in the marketplace and that appears to be the catalyst customers needed to begin adoption. Also of note were very strong shipment trends in 100GBase LR4 modules, demonstrating the widespread prototyping and trial activity now underway among 100 Gbps vendors and service providers," notes Andrew Schmitt, directing analyst for optical at Infonetics Research.