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  Date: 20/03/2022

The surge in PC shipments in 2021 creates a bubble

Global PC shipments in the year 2021 is estimated to have crossed around 340 million units, according to various market research agencies. Compared to 2020, it's a growth of approximately 15%, and a CAGR 13% from the year 2019. Clearly signifies the importance of PCs during the pandemic. Though PC market got impacted positively from covid due to work from home and online education compulsions. However if you look at the market before Covid, the market growth started back in 2019 itself due to the end of support for Windows 7. Although smart phone is playing a key role as a daily use digital device, but the role of PC is still strong and not easily replaceable for work and education and as well as leisure and entertainment.

It was in year 2019, the PC market in terms of shipment started growing for first-time since 2011, though the market growth was very marginal compared to 2018, but the curve started tilting upside.

Region-wise: the US PC market(excluding tablet) grew by around 10% in the year 2021. The total US shipment of PCs excluding tablet is estimated around 90 million units for the year 2021. This is followed by an even higher growth in 2020. However in 2022 market growth is not visible instead it can be estimated a fall in growth in the first quarter 2022.

China is also another region where the growth of PCs excluding tablets in the year 2021 is in the range of 10% for the year 2021. Excluding tablets the China PC shipment in the year 2021 is estimated at around 60 million units. PC shipments in India is estimated to grew by a 34% year on year in Q3 2021 to a record 5.3 million units, as per Canalys.

Vendor Analysis: In terms of share and growth, the top two- Lenovo and Apple are neck to neck in competing with each other. Lenovo is estimated to have shipped around 100 million PCs including tablets in the year 2021, whereas Apple is estimated to have shipped around 80 to 90 million PCs including tablets in the year 2021. Lenovo and Apple are estimated have a market share of close to 38%.

For the third and fourth spot HP and Dell compete very closely, where HP is estimated to have a lead over Dell. HP and Dell together are estimated to have a market share of 25%. The other two known players Acer and Samsung rank after these four. The other players excluding these six are estimated to have a market share around 30%. Samsung stays in the list only if you consider tablet market.

Microsoft Windows and Apple MacOS based PC systems dominate this market. The chrome OS based chrome books are losing their market share in 2021.

This covid driven market bubble can burst in 2022 itself or max it may stretch to 2023.

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